IMF revises global growth rate to 3.2% in 2022

The International Monetary Fund has revised the growth rate of the global economy to 3.2 per cent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook.

This is also far lower than the 6.1 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded in 2021.

Already, Ghana has revised its growth rate to 3.6 per cent, from the earlier 5.8 per cent.

The Fund’s July 2022 Economic Outlook report attributed the slowdown in the growth rate to tightening global financial conditions associated with expectations of steeper interest rate hikes by major central banks to ease inflation pressure, and spillovers from the war in Ukraine.

Global inflation has also been revised up due to food and energy prices as well as lingering supply-demand imbalances, and is anticipated to reach 6.6 per cent in advanced economies and 9.5 per cent in emerging markets and developing economies this year, upward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively.

 In 2023, disinflationary monetary policy is expected to bite, with global output growing by just 2.9 per cent.

The Fund further said with growth near 3 per cent in 2022–23, a decline in global GDP or in global GDP per capita, sometimes associated with global recession, was not currently part of the baseline scenario.

However, there are projections for growth on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis point to a significant weakening of activity in the second half of 2022.

While the revisions are mostly negative for advanced economies, differing exposures to the underlying developments mean that those for emerging market and developing economies are more mixed.

“As noted, growth revisions for major advanced economies in 2022–23 are generally negative. Baseline growth in the United States is revised down by 1.4 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points in 2022 and 2023, respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected growth in the first two quarters of 2022, with significantly less momentum in private consumption, in part reflecting the erosion of household purchasing power and the expected impact of a steeper tightening in monetary policy,” it said.

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