Bolt ‘cannot win Rio 2016 100m final’?…Gatlin tipped to unseat him

BoltRio 2016 will be a miserable Olympics for Usain Bolt and Great Britain (GB). That is if the predictions of Dutch company Infostrada come to pass.

The statistics firm tracks events around the world in all Olympic sports, then converts those results into a formula to predict who will win each Olympic medal.

At London 2012, Infostrada almost exactly forecast the British team’s total of 65 medals.

This time around, the latest update of its “virtual medal table” suggests the United States will once again lead the way, ahead of China, while Britain suffers a spectacular slump – and Bolt missing out on men’s 100m gold for the first time since 2004. Britain has set a target of bettering their 65-medal tally from 2012. But Infostrada says they will do well to reach 45 in Rio.

“It’s bad news,” admits Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Infostrada Sports. “GB is not going to perform anything like it did in London.

“We should expect a drop-off anyway, because London came with all sorts of advantages as the hosts, but this drop-off – as it stands is quite large.”

Jamaican legend Bolt, 28, is predicted to miss out on Olympic 100m gold next year.

“We’ve got Bolt second at the moment, behind Justin Gatlin,” says Gleave.

Gatlin, the American who served a four-year drugs ban between 2006 and 2010, won bronze at London 2012 – where Bolt completed his second successive Olympic treble, winning 100m, 200m and 4x100m relay gold meals. Bolt has dominated the 100m for the better part of a decade, winning the world titles in 2009 and 2013 alongside his two Olympic gold medals. Only in 2011, when he false-started, has he missed out.

American Justin Gatlin is currently Infostrada’s pick to beat Bolt over 100m.

“It’s because of the lack of events he has taken part in,” explains Gleave. “Bolt has competed in nothing that goes into this formula since 2013, whereas Gatlin has competed in a ton of events.”

In other words, Bolt’s preference for racing only on rare occasions earns him a penalty.

Gleave concedes that Bolt should, in reality, not be so easily written off – pointing out that Infostrada also had Bolt missing out on gold at London 2012, a prediction that was blown apart in an Olympic record time of 9.63 seconds. — CNN

If Bolt competes, as expected, at this summer’s World Championships in Beijing, a gold medal there would be likely to restore his place above Gatlin in the rankings.

“In a way, that’s what makes this nice,” says Gleave, defending the system. “It’s dynamic, it changes all the time.

“If someone returns to the top, we can watch that happening over the weeks and months before the Olympic Games starts.”-CNN

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